Deloitte predicts that one billion smartphones will be purchased as upgrades for the first time in 2015, generating over $300 billion in sales.
The quantity of smartphones bought as upgrades is unparalleled among consumer electronics devices. In 2015 smartphone sales will be greater in units and revenues than the PC, television, tablet and games console sectors combined. What’s more, according to Deloitte’s research, undertaken in May-June 2014, about seven in ten smartphone owners in 14 developed markets had upgraded their phone in the previous 18 months. This is more frequent than for any other consumer electronics device, which may surprise in view of the fact that in 2015 most smartphone owners are likely to spend more time looking at TV screens, and information workers and students may spend more time looking at PC screens. However, the smartphone is the most personal of consumer electronics devices: the most constant companion, the most personal of choices, the most customized and reflective of the owners, the least likely to be shared with other users, and the most frequently looked at.
In addition, the huge production volumes of smartphones manufactured make this the most competitive market among devices, undergoing the most substantive technical improvement on a year-by-year basis. Assessing the smartphone upgrade market from a purely technical perspective, it might be concluded that most existing owners do not ‘need’ a new device. But this assessment is too narrow; there is a wide spread of motivations, practical and emotional, which will drive the billion upgrades we anticipate for 2015 and the 1.15 billion for 2016.
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